India likely to receive normal rainfall this year

New Delhi: The recent forecast by India Meterological Department (IMD) will bring a broad grin on the faces of millions of farmers as the weather department has predicted a normal monsoon this year. In 2019, India experienced an above normal monsoon with 10 percent excess rain, whereas in 2018, the country witnessed a nine percent deficit rain in the monsoon season, with many parts under drought.

“In these difficult times due to coronavirus, IMD has good news,” M. Rajeevan Nair, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said on Wednesday, adding that the rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is likely to be in line with the long-term average of 88cm. The forecast carries a model error of +/-5%.

The economy which has taken a severe beating due to the pandemic is likely to benefit from good agricultural output that is likely to be produced this year. Robust farm output will help ease the stress in the overall economy, experts said.

The four-month monsoon season starting June is very important for the Indian economy, as it provides more than 75 percent of the annual rainfall every year.

There is 41% probability that the rain would be normal, according to IMD. Seasonal rainfall, which is 96-104% of the long-period average, or LPA, (1961-2000) of 88cm, is considered to be normal. There is a 21% probability that it may be above normal in the range of 104-110% of LPA, 20% that it may end up as below normal, when rain is 90-96%, and 9% chance that it may be deficient.